NASCAR is taking it to the streets of Chicago on Sunday for the Grant Park 165 and year two of racing on the Cup Series’ only street course. The race through the streets of Chicago is quite the spectacle. New Zealander Shane van Gisbergen is favored to win it again this year, but the uniqueness of the “track” makes the outcome wildly unpredictable should SVG run into any trouble.
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Our NASCAR experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, have some fun making picks on who might win if it’s not the reigning Chicago champ.
We also dive into our lingering questions about the Nashville race last Sunday, the brewing Hamlin/Larson rivalry, prospects for Hailie Deegan and the chaos that lurks at the Cup Series playoff cut line.
NASCAR at Chicago (Street) is set for Sunday, July 7, at 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Let’s get into it!
Nashville started slow and then felt like it turned into complete chaos! (Prompting Jeff to post on X simply: “Oh FFS” at one point. lol) Some people felt like it was fantastic entertainment, while others said it was an embarrassment. My guess is there’s some truth to both. What’s your takeaway from the record-breaking OTs and overall race at Nashville? Mistakes were made? Chaos is a ladder? NASCAR is awesome?
Jeff: The extra overtimes were created in part by people being close on fuel and then running out of gas, so I didn’t think it was an embarrassment. Yeah, it was a little much. Traditionally, in other forms of auto racing, zero laps get added to a race; once the scheduled distance is reached, that’s it — whether it’s under caution or not. NASCAR is more entertainment-focused and has overtimes (unlimited, at that), so this was a situation where more than 40 miles (!) got added to what was supposed to be a 400-mile race. Still, it wasn’t like it was a clown show (as was the case with the Austin road course race last year, which was a triple-overtime joke). So this was OK, and it was rare enough that everyone can just move on without much hand-wringing.
Jordan: Team Chaos thoroughly enjoyed the finish. But what’s important to note is that it didn’t devolve into a “clown show”-type situation, as the record number of overtimes wasn’t due to embarrassing mistakes. The cautions were all racing accidents that happen in late-race situations — especially when you factor in how many drivers were pushing it on fuel mileage. Now, were five overtimes happening every week, a conversation could be had on whether NASCAR needs to evaluate its procedures. But as it is, what occurred last week should be considered a blip.
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NOOB question of the week: Joey Logano’s team won through a fuel-saving strategy by, in simple terms, being slow. Seems like a real-life tortoise and the hare! What’s the history/precedent for a strategy like this working out? How often is fuel-saving a deciding factor? (It seems to keep coming up this year.)
Jeff: Denny Hamlin’s crew chief tweeted that Logano won by being slow, but that’s a relative term. The truth is Logano, who was running around 15th for most of the final stage, wasn’t burning the same amount of fuel as the leaders. When a car is out front, the driver has to go for it and try to create as much speed as possible. Whereas being in the middle of the pack, Logano was probably lifting off the gas earlier and getting back to the pedal later because there were cars around him, so he was having to manage that. Over the course of 110 laps (many of which were under caution), that helped him save just enough to make it. Typically, NASCAR will see a fuel-mileage race like this once or twice a year, and occasionally, it can create wild upsets if someone manages it correctly.
Jordan: Often, the fastest car doesn’t win the race, with fuel mileage one of the innumerable factors at play in determining who wins and loses. On Sunday, circ*mstances fell in Logano’s favor, and he and his No. 22 team capitalized. They deserve credit for this. Winning isn’t just about speed; strategy matters, too.
Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson really got into it in that race. Should we expect that rivalry to keep bubbling up in future races? They didn’t get a chance to really race it out in Nashville.
Jeff: Hamlin and Larson may be buddies off the track, but their on-track rivalry (a term Hamlin finally accepted on his podcast this week) is certainly heating up. At issue are a couple of things. First, for all his greatness, Larson has never come out on the positive end of a 1-2 finish with Hamlin. And not only that, but Larson has sometimes been on the receiving end of Hamlin’s aggressive racing, which prompted a rebuke from his spotter two weeks ago when Larson appeared to get pushed around. Larson isn’t going to stand for that, so he is now going to race Hamlin extra hard. Meanwhile, Hamlin isn’t backing down because he claims to be racing Larson just like Larson races others (Larson is known for pushing others up the racetrack as well). The bottom line is these are perhaps the two best cars and teams for the overall season, so they’re going to clash again — especially at places like Pocono and Indianapolis. So that should provide for some fireworks at some point soon.
Jordan: All the ingredients are there for this budding rivalry to continue. And this is a positive thing for NASCAR as a whole. The sport is at its best when it has two of its top contenders engaged in a feud, especially when you have a fan favorite like Larson on one side and a driver like Hamlin on the other who’s willing to don a black hat. One thing to watch is whether Larson will continue to stand up for himself like he did at Nashville or if that was a one-time thing and he’ll revert back to his customary cool-headed form.
Jordan shared on X that Hailie Deegan is out of the No. 15 AM Racing Ford for the Xfinity Series race at Chicago. Can you share some grounded perspective on this change and what it means for her future, if anything?
Jeff: Before the pandemic, Deegan was a very bright prospect for NASCAR. By the end of 2019, she had won three ARCA West Series races. In her final ARCA West race, she finished fourth behind a Ty Gibbs-Sam Mayer 1-2 finish. People were optimistic Deegan could continue her success in the Truck Series, but she only had five top-10 finishes in three full seasons there. But in 2022 at Las Vegas, Deegan showed impressive form by finishing 13th in her Xfinity Series debut — so the thought was perhaps the amateurish racing that infects the Truck Series at the time was maybe holding her back. This year, she’s finally gotten a shot in Xfinity, but unfortunately, the results just haven’t followed. Through the first half of this season, Deegan is 27th in points with only four finishes inside the top 20 (none better than 15th). That same car last year, driven by Brett Moffitt, finished an average of nine positions better (17.9 vs. 26.8) than Deegan has this season. So, it’s fair for the team to want to evaluate whether it’s the equipment or the driver that has been holding back the desired results.
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Jordan: Her NASCAR future is in doubt. The performance simply hasn’t been good enough to think Deegan will fulfill the promise she once showed at the grassroots level. She struggled in Trucks and that’s continued on into Xfinity to where it’s not shocking AM Racing decided a change was needed. Which direction her career heads remains to be seen, but it’s clear her star has fallen considerably.
Tell us more about who is on the bubble right now for the playoffs and how you anticipate things will play out. The way it looks, Jeff said one more new winner from below the cut line would send it into chaos. *cue Elmo fire meme*
One more new winner from below the cut line would send the bubble into chaos now. https://t.co/OBtyysAwKt
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) July 1, 2024
Jeff: If there are no more new winners from below the playoff cut line, then all of the bubble drivers have nothing to worry about. The closest driver outside the playoffs is Bubba Wallace, but he probably can’t make up 51 points in seven races. But if there’s a new winner? Oh my. Suddenly, even Ty Gibbs (currently 10th in the standings and 70 points up on the cutoff) wouldn’t be safe. So everyone from Gibbs to Ross Chastain, Chris Buescher and Alex Bowman (who are all separated by just 19 points) need to be very concerned about an upset winner shaking up the playoff picture again, because one of them would be out.
Jordan: Right now, as things stand, if you’re below the playoff cut line, the best — and maybe the only — chance is by scoring a win over these next seven races. Pointing your way in is a tall task that also requires some good luck in the form of a winning driver above the cut line having a rash of bad luck. That’s a big ask. All of which means expect the desperation level to intensify over the next few weeks.
Speaking of chaos, last year’s street race at Chicago was definitely that, with rain delays, wet streets, plenty of crashes and a last-minute shortening of the race due to the sun setting. Do you expect another crazy race this Sunday? What are you hoping to see this year compared to last? Do you think the drivers will have more of a handle on the race?
Jeff: The rain was a major factor in making that race so crazy last year, but it should still have some chaotic elements again in Year 2. NASCAR does not race on any other street courses, and most of the drivers’ only street racing experience came last year at Chicago. That was a major reason why Australian Supercars driver Shane van Gisbergen was able to drop in and win in his Cup Series debut. Now, van Gisbergen is a full-time Xfinity Series driver and will also be in the Cup race, so the big question is whether he can replicate his performance or whether the Cup field has made gains in street racing since last year.
Jordan: Because the weather was so abysmal last year, there are so many unknowns going into Sunday. Drivers have largely been complimentary about the layout, lauding it for having more passing zones than expected of a circuit built inside a major metropolitan area. With the weekend forecast looking dry (!), the hope is that Sunday’s race is devoid of the craziness that marked last year’s race and gives a true indication of the actual layout.
Who do you like to win in Chicago?
Jeff: In terms of your strategy, it comes down to whether you want to go with the favorite (SVG) or take a chance on the rest of the field being more competitive this year. Personally, before we see any practice, my guess would be SVG is capable of dominating this race. He has more experience with those close-in walls on a narrow street circuit and is precise and just so immensely talented. Then again, this is NASCAR — the fastest car doesn’t always win. Something could easily happen to van Gisbergen in the race (Bad pit stop? Mechanical failure? Mistake?) that opens the door for someone else. It’s up to you whether the odds (currently +550) are in your range. Personally, I would think he should be even more of a heavy favorite than this, so it actually seems like a good value.
Jordan: SVG is the obvious favorite. And the fact that he’s more acclimated to NASCAR this year could make him even more dominant on Sunday. Drivers likely won’t have to deal with a wet circuit, which further gives SVG an advantage. Picking another favorite outside of SVG is difficult. A reasonable case can be made for any one of a dozen different drivers, and racing on a street course won’t be a completely foreign concept this year.
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Who is a long shot you like in Chicago?
Jeff: If it’s not SVG who wins, the door could really be open for a wild race with a variety of non-traditional contenders. A.J. Allmendinger and Michael McDowell’s odds aren’t long enough to be considered upsets, but they might be worth taking a flier. But if you’re looking for real long shots (+3000 or higher), Austin Cindric might not be a bad pick. I’m not sure I’d go any further than that, but there are some potential high-value picks for top-10 finishers (maybe a Justin Haley or Todd Gilliland).
Jordan: It’s not often you can get Denny Hamlin at +2000, so you can do a whole lot worse than grabbing him as your long-shot pick. And while road/street courses may not be Hamlin’s forte, let’s not forget he did win the pole here a year ago.
Odds for NASCAR at Chicago race winner
Oddsvia BetMGM.
(Photo of Shane van Gisbergen after winning at Chicago last year: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
